Race Predictor

What better way to celebrate the unpredictability of BMX than by offering predictions!

Data is at the heart of what makes BMX Insights tick. Looking at past race results helps riders set goals and train smarter, but predicting future events adds a whole new layer of fun and excitement. While powered by statistical models and real race data, these predictions are not guarantees. The final outcome still comes down to the rider, the track, the weather, and the luck of the draw.

BMX Insights calculates a BMX Strength Index (BSI) for every rider, reflecting recent results, age group, and skill level. These ratings update nightly and gradually fade over time, creating a live snapshot of each rider's competitive strength for both Class and Cruiser bikes. Once moto boards are published, a Monte Carlo simulator runs thousands of virtual races using those BSI values—adding just enough randomness to mimic great gates, bad starts, and photo finishes. From those simulations come each rider's Win %, Podium %, and Expected Finish.

Each prediction also includes a confidence level, showing how much recent data supports it. Riders who've raced often have high-confidence predictions based on strong, current results, while those with fewer or older races carry lower confidence—meaning more uncertainty and room for surprise. The Standard Deviation shows how consistent (or volatile) each rider's simulated results are.

Predictions are automatically generated within 15 minutes of your event's live motoboard being published and are removed 2 days after the event.